Electoral uncertainty and the volatility of international capital flows
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Electoral uncertainty and the volatility of international capital flows by Roberto Chang

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Published by National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass .
Written in English

Subjects:

  • Elections -- Economic aspects -- Econometric models

Book details:

Edition Notes

StatementRoberto Chang.
SeriesNBER working paper series -- no. 12448., Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 12448.
ContributionsNational Bureau of Economic Research.
The Physical Object
Pagination29, [5] p. :
Number of Pages29
ID Numbers
Open LibraryOL17630982M
OCLC/WorldCa71004513

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Electoral Uncertainty and the Electoral Uncertainty and the Volatility of International Capital Flows. Roberto Chang. Share. Twitter LinkedIn Email. Working Paper DOI /w Issue Date Hence electoral outcomes depends on the size of the debt, which itself depends on expectations about the election. Cited by: Get this from a library! Electoral uncertainty and the volatility of international capital flows. [Roberto Chang; National Bureau of Economic Research.] -- I study a small open economy in which elections affect and are affected by capital inflows. Two candidates, one favoring workers and another favoring entrepreneurs, run for office; the winner chooses. Electoral Uncertainty and the Volatility of International Capital Flows Article (PDF Available) September with 24 Reads How we measure 'reads'. Electoral Uncertainty and the Volatility of International Capital Flows Roberto Chang Rutgers University and NBER This version: July 1. Introduction Three recent Latin American episodes have underscored that financial volatility is often strongly associated with electoral uncertainty and distributional con flict.

CiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles, Pradeep Teregowda): I study a small open economy in which electoral uncertainty affects and is affected by capital inflows. Two candidates, one favoring workers and another favoring entrepreneurs, run for office; the winner chooses tax policy, which affects investment returns. A pro labor electoral victory results in a "sudden stop.   Abstract. In a large panel of 26 emerging countries over the last 40 years, stock market return volatilities forecast capital flows. When a country’s stock market volatility increases, capital inflows decrease and capital outflows increase, with net flows slightly decreasing. BibTeX @MISC{Chang06nberworking, author = {Roberto Chang and Roberto Chang and Roberto Chang}, title = {NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES ELECTORAL UNCERTAINTY AND THE VOLATILITY OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS}, year = {}}. We examine the effects of government policy uncertainty on cross-border capital flows. FDI flows from US companies to foreign affiliates drop significantly during the period just before an election. The election effect for FDI is larger than election cycles in domestic investment. The electoral patterns in FDI flows are more pronounced in countries with higher propensities for policy reversals.

Downloadable! In a large panel of 26 emerging countries over the last 40 years, aggregate stock market return volatilities, our measure of uncertainty, forecast capital flows. When the stock market return volatility increases, capital inflows decrease and capital outflows increase. We propose a simple decomposition of each country's market return volatility into two components: countries. electoral volatility. Quick Reference. 1 The degree of change in voting behaviour between elections. There is a distinction between net volatility and total volatility. Net volatility relates to the change in the shares of the vote for each party. It is usually measured by the index of dissimilarity, or Pedersen index, which is the sum of the.   1. Introduction. Cross-border flows of capital have grown rapidly in size and importance in recent decades. 1 Foreign investment is an important source of capital in emerging markets and represents a significant proportion of GDP in many countries around the world (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti, ).Numerous researchers have examined various drivers of bilateral capital flows, ranging from. Dutch foreign trade is hampered by short-term exchange rate volatility, reflecting uncertainty due to payment lags. Direct investment for the Netherlands, inward as well as outward, is stimulated by long-term exchange rate volatility, revealing the dominance of production diversification incentives. International Trade and Capital Flows. In.